The trend of annual rainfall change in Mafraq during the period 1985-2015

Abstract

This study aimed to identify the trend of change in the quantities and annual rates of rainfall in Mafraq by analyzing the rain data of three climatic stations representing the study area during the period (1985-2015), and this period was divided into two periods, the first period (1985-2000) , And the second period (2001-2015), in order to reveal any differences in the amounts of rain between the averages of the two periods.                                                                                                       

To achieve the objectives of the study, some statistical methods and mathematical relationships were used, such as the Pearson parameter to find the relationship between the amounts of rain and the height above sea level, the equation of the regression line, the method of half-averages, and the T-test to determine whether there are statistically significant differences between the averages of the two periods About the level of significance (a≤0.05). The results also showed that the study area was subjected to three dry periods during which the rainfall amounts significantly decreased in their rates compared to the general average of rains, and the third dry period was the longest between the three periods as it lasted from (2004) to (2013) and the values ​​of the arithmetic means of moving amounts of rain ranged. In this period (95.3-88.6 mm). And three periods of wetness during which the rates of rain were higher than the general average of rain, as the first period was the longest among them, as it lasted from (1987) to (1996) to occupy the highest value of the arithmetic means of moving annual quantities of precipitation amounted to (154.6 mm). The previous results indicate the possibility that climate change is responsible for the decrease in the    annual and monthly rainfall amounts in the study area.                              

Key words: rain, seperator.