تأثير التنافسية على الصادرات الأردنية

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impact of competitiveness on the Jordanian exports, using annual data for the time period (2000-2019). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) for unit root were conducted, which showed the stationarity of TOT at level I(0), and stationarity of GEXP  & GCR  & REER at first difference I(1), and stationarity of OPEN at second difference I(2). Johanson co-integration test was conducted, which showed the existence of a co-integration relationship between the study variables in the long term. Granger causality test was conducted, which showed that there is a one-way causal relationship that moves from the global competitiveness index and the rate of trade exchange towards Jordanian exports, in addition to the existence of a unidirectional causal relationship that moves from Jordanian exports towards the effective real exchange rate.

The results of the analysis of the variance decomposition showed that Jordanian exports are strongly affected by the global competitiveness index, not for one period, but for later time period. The results of the impulse response function showed that the global competitiveness index has a positive impact on Jordanian exports for two periods, and them begins negative, as the global competitiveness index leads to a rise in Jordanian exports for two years, and then this impact begins to decline.